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The Athletic has launched a new series of sports debates in which two writers break down a specific topic. In this Olympic edition, Sabreena Merchant and Ben Pickman reset the stakes for the second half of the WNBA season.
Sabreena Merchant: The WNBA season resumes Thursday after a month-long Olympic break — not that either of us did anything but watch basketball during that stretch.
Ben Pickman: And track! And swimming! And everything else going on. But yes, all we did was check out more sports!
Merchant: Now that we’re back, the big question is whether the Las Vegas Aces can complete a three-peat. It has not been done since the Houston Comets, who won the first four WNBA titles starting in 1997. But instead of limiting our discussion to just Las Vegas, I want to broaden the scope. We’ve talked a lot this season about increased parity and the general improvement in quality throughout the WNBA, but has any team broken through the Aces-Liberty duopoly? Or are we headed for a re-run of the 2023 finals?
Pickman: At the start of the postseason in mid-September, I expect the Liberty and the Aces to be playing the best basketball across the league. However, I have a hard time penciling in an Aces-Liberty finals because I’m not confident they will be on opposite sides of the bracket. Las Vegas is only two games behind the Connecticut Sun for No. 2 and a half-game back from Minnesota and Seattle for third and fourth, respectively. Las Vegas already has eight losses, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some more stumbles as players return from Paris. That might be the difference in seeding, with the race being as close as it is.
♦️♠️♥️♣️ pic.twitter.com/LHqlZcn6a2
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) August 11, 2024
Merchant: The point about the standings is fair, and we might be headed for a situation where these two teams play a de facto finals series earlier in the playoffs, similar to Storm-Mercury in 2018 in the semifinals or even Storm-Aces in 2022. So let’s reframe the question. Will one of the Aces or Liberty win the title or do you think another team has a chance?
Pickman: Give me the Aces and Liberty over the field.
Merchant: I’m usually the one on the side of inertia. I tend to go with things that have already happened — that’s partly why we both picked Las Vegas to win the title at the start of the season. However, after watching the Olympics so closely, I realized how exhausting this experience must have been for the participants, and the Aces have the most Olympians.
I think back to 2021 when Seattle went into the break on a heater and then had to sit Breanna Stewart and Sue Bird for multiple games after Tokyo. Ultimately, Stewart got hurt and couldn’t even finish out the season. In 2016, the Minnesota Lynx had four players on the Olympic team and ran out of gas against the Los Angeles Sparks, who notably had no Olympians. The Aces had six Olympians this year — the four members of Team USA plus Tiffany Hayes and Megan Gustafson. In particular, the four Americans are tasked with doing so much already for Las Vegas, and to do that on top of this heavy load they carried for Team USA might be too much. I’m drained from simply watching the Olympics, so I can only imagine the toll it has taken on A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Kelsey Plum.
Pickman: All of what you said is super reasonable, and it’s partly why it wouldn’t be shocking to see some losses from the two preseason title favorites as play resumes. We should add that the New York Liberty not only have two players returning after lengthy Olympic runs (Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu), but two other important bench contributors Leonie Fiebich and Nyara Sabally are returning to New York after suffering injuries during the tournament (though both played in Germany’s final game against France).
Can a coach also be fatigued? Sandy Brondello was focused on Team Australia as the Opals eventually took home a bronze medal. Other coaches around the league who were not at the Olympics were otherwise fixated on their WNBA teams (after they, too, took vacations). Still, half of the American Olympians are on those two teams and their talent was apparent throughout.
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Who will win the WNBA championship? Bold expert predictions as play resumes
Merchant: That’s the main problem with the 2016 and 2021 comparisons. The Sparks and Sky didn’t have any five-on-five Olympians in those years (the 3×3 schedule was shorter, so Stefanie Dolson could come back sooner), but none of the top contenders fit that bill this year. The Lynx had three starters go to the Olympics plus coach Cheryl Reeve. Phoenix sent three starters, and Seattle sent two plus key reserve Sami Whitcomb. The closest beneficiary, so to speak, of the month off was the Connecticut Sun, with only one Olympian in Alyssa Thomas. Previously, I’ve been reluctant to consider the Sun on the same level as the Aces and the Liberty, but perhaps the addition of Marina Mabrey and a fresher roster is what they need to make that leap.
Pickman: I should add that the Sun are also winners of the Olympic break because their 2024 first-round pick Leïla Lacan had countless bright spots for the French national team, showing versatility on both ends. Still, back to the matter at hand, it’s hard to overlook that Connecticut is 0-4 against the Liberty and Aces this season and was 1-6 against New York and Las Vegas in the 2023 regular season.
Merchant: Prior to Napheesa Collier’s injury, I would have argued that Minnesota was as good as Las Vegas and New York. The Lynx understandably suffered in her absence, but Collier looked great at the end of the Olympics. If she is a first-team all-WNBA performer upon her return, Minnesota is the team best suited to break up the super-squad rematch. Plus, maybe Reeve has learned some lessons about managing the Olympic break after spending 2016 and 2021 as an assistant coach.
Pickman: I sat in a press room in late June after Minnesota beat New York to win the Commissioner’s Cup when Reeve said: “You gotta talk about us now.” And yet, I do wonder how much more improvement the Lynx can show in the second half. There’s so much to like: They have the No. 1 defense in the WNBA, shoot a league-best 38.4 percent from 3-point range, and lead the league in points off turnovers (after forcing turnovers on 20 percent of their defensive possessions). Alanna Smith was named to FIBA’s first-team Olympic roster for how she performed with Australia and Collier played an important role for the Americans.
Nevertheless, in a short series, I bet the Aces and Liberty stars would figure out Minnesota’s scrambling defense and its core which, while talented, is not as strong as the Aces and Liberty.
Merchant: And that’s why, even with the extra miles the Las Vegas and New York stars have had to log, I don’t think I’ll be picking against them in two months. But I am more convinced in the Liberty’s ability to take down the Aces after this Olympic tournament. The guard play advantage that Las Vegas held a year ago doesn’t seem as dramatic given the performances of Ionescu and Fiebich in Paris, and New York is better suited to give its stars rest and still maintain a high seed for the postseason than the Aces are.
Pickman: But to paraphrase Dawn Staley (and many others before her) after the gold-medal game, the Aces have A’ja Wilson and nobody else does. Plus, how can you bet against coach Becky Hammon to get the most out of her players in a short series?
Merchant: Picking against Hammon hasn’t worked well for me in the past, that’s for sure. Maybe some team can pick up Gabby Williams or Emma Meesseman for the stretch run and really shake things up.
(Photo of Sabrina Ionescu: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
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