Which MLB teams might change managers? Plus, Olympics and automated strike zone updates

The Windup Newsletter ⚾ | This is The Athletic’s daily MLB newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Windup directly in your inbox.

The commissioner took questions before Tuesday’s All-Star Game, and there was a lot to sort through! I’ll touch on some highlights, and Ken checks in on the job security of managers as we look forward to the second half. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!

Thomas Bender / Herald Tribune / USA Today

Coming Soon: Could automated zone arrive in 2025?

At this point, it’s just a matter of when we’re getting the ABS (automated ball/strike) system in the big leagues, but Rob Manfred gave us a clue this week. The short version:

“It is not likely that we would bring ABS to the big leagues without a spring training test,” Manfred said. “So if it’s 2024, that leaves me 2025 as the year to do your spring training test, if we can get these issues resolved. Which would make 2026 a viable possibility.”

There are basically two issues to work through. The first is which system MLB would use: fully automated or the challenge system? (As a reminder, the latter primarily uses human umpires but allows teams to ask for a review by the automated system on a number of calls per game.)

“We have listened … to player input on how they want to see it rolled out,” Manfred said. “So our focus in the second half of this year is on the challenge system.”

Personally, I like the challenge system. We don’t lose the umpires (or framing, for that matter) completely, but it does give a means to correct some of the more egregious errors, something that currently can’t be done.

The second issue is a bit trickier: How will the strike zone be defined? Front of the plate? Back of the plate? Anywhere in the three-dimensional cube-that-is-actually-more-of-an-egg-shape? It’s a tricky question, and I can’t wait to see the answer.

Evan Drellich has a full report here on the commissioner’s ABS comments.

Ken’s Notebook: Which teams might change managers?

Trade-deadline talk will dominate baseball discussion over the next few weeks, but at some point we’ll again be talking about potential managerial changes.

The running theme of this entry will be “difficult to imagine so-and-so getting fired when his team has so many holes.” But here is a midseason look at some managers who could find themselves in some trouble:

Aaron Boone, 58-40 Yankees: If the Yankees fail to turn it back around, this would be the second straight season they collapsed after a strong start.
John Schneider, 44-52 Blue Jays: Even if the Blue Jays keep Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette with the goal of competing in 2025, would they still consider Schneider the right choice for a win-now club?
Pedro Grifol, 27-71 White Sox: The chances of him surviving 101 losses last season and his team’s current 117-loss pace would appear minimal.
Ron Washington, 41-55 Angels: General manager Perry Minasian, in the final year of his contract, might be in more immediate trouble. Washington is in the first year of a two-year deal that includes an option for a third.
Mark Kotsay, 37-61 A’s: Can’t see them giving up on a manager who provides them with a semblance of stability, but maybe owner John Fisher would prefer a carnival barker to help sell tickets in Sacramento.
David Bell, 47-50 Reds: A fairly active offseason raised expectations. In six seasons under Bell, including the shortened 2020 campaign, they have yet to win more than 83 games.
Dave Roberts, 56-41 Dodgers: The Dodgers will make the playoffs, but heaven knows what their injury-depleted roster will look like in October. A third straight early elimination, fairly or not, would turn up the heat.
Bud Black, 34-63 Rockies: His team, forever under construction, is headed for its sixth straight losing season. Would anyone blame Black if it was he who wanted out?

And here are two others who could also wind up elsewhere:

Alex Cora, 53-42 Red Sox: Unsigned beyond this season and overperforming with a young team, Cora continues to look like this year’s Craig Counsell.
Skip Schumaker, 33-63 Marlins: Like Cora, he will be in demand as a free agent at the end of the season — perhaps even from a team that currently is satisfied with its existing manager.

Baseball in the Games: MLB discussing 2028 Olympics

Manfred was also asked about the possibility of MLB players being allowed to play in the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles. The biggest issue, of course, is that the Summer Games insist on taking place in … the summer. For decades, the response from MLB has been the equivalent of a text reply: “Sorry, can’t make it — gotta work that day.”

But players have increasingly expressed interest in representing their countries, perhaps fueled in part by the excitement and fun of playing in the World Baseball Classic.

“I hope,” Bryce Harper said this week. “You want to grow the game, right? Why not grow it at the peak of (sports)? … I’m hoping we can get something done. It’s tough, logistically, but it would be a lot of fun to get baseball there and have the best players there, representing their country.”

I found it interesting that instead of taking input and bringing the topic to the owners himself, Manfred elected to allow agent Casey Wasserman — head of L.A.’s Olympic effort — to make the presentation.

“He was saying things to me that (the owners) had to hear directly, sometimes it’s better that way,” Manfred explained. “And so I invited Casey, and he did a really nice job. He really did. And he was very persuasive.”

The biggest issue to work out, of course, is what to do with the baseball season during the break. Would they reduce the number of games? Expand the calendar? How would the players who aren’t playing in the Olympics stay sharp over the break?

There’s a lot to sort through, but all parties who spoke on the matter seemed to indicate that there’s enough interest to at least keep exploring possible ways to get it done.

Drellich has more from Manfred — and MLBPA head Tony Clark — on the Olympics question.

Notebook Dump: Four more thoughts from Manfred

Manfred took questions at the Baseball Writers Association meeting for over a half-hour. Here are some other quick hits from his availability:

On All-Star Game uniforms: Manfred acknowledged that he is aware of the growing sentiment that the All-Star Game was more aesthetically pleasing when players wore their team’s jersey instead of a one-time All-Star design, and said that “we’re going to have a conversation about it coming out of the All-Star Game.”
On the future of broadcast rights: As the RSN model continues to tank, Manfred acknowledged that streaming is the future, and indicated that removing blackout restrictions is a priority. As more teams’ broadcast rights become available, he said teams are free to find their own deals, but … “We’re going to be available to those teams with the kind of model that we’re using in San Diego, Arizona and Colorado. We’ll go direct to distributors … on the cable side, and we will light up MLB.tv in-market to give you a digital alternative. We think that will increase our reach, in terms of giving people who have cut the cord the opportunity to watch local games.”
On the increasing number of suspensions due to gambling: Manfred put a positive spin on the league’s partnerships with gambling companies. “I think that the relationships that we built with sports betting enterprises — which has given us the ability to use technology to monitor betting activities — I really, truly believe that we are in a better position to know what’s going on today than we were in the old days, where it was all illegal.”
… However, gambling’s prevalence raises concerns about fans threatening players over game results: “Obviously, anytime a player receives a threat from any source on any topic, it is a matter of concern to us that we take really seriously. … I have had — in the last month or so — players mention this issue to me. It’s obviously one that’s of concern, and we’ve been discussing internally what and whether we should do, to be more proactive in this area.”

Handshakes and High Fives

With the trade deadline less than two weeks away, Tim Britton put together his list of the 10 best trade deadlines in recent years.

The league has been a paragon for parity this year, with 21 of 30 teams currently in — or within five games of — a division lead or a wild-card spot. Austin Mock ran the projections 100,000 times to give you the odds of your team making it to the playoffs (and beyond).

Keith Law takes a look at the 2024 draft classes of every AL team (he’ll be back tomorrow with the NL version).

Not a story, but definitely noteworthy: Babe Ruth’s “called shot” jersey is up for auction?! (Bonus: I’d never seen this broadcast from 1994 before, but it’s worth a watch.)

Most-clicked in the newsletter yesterday: Evan Drellich’s explainer on why the MLBPA suffered an attempted mutiny earlier this year.

Most-read MLB story on the website yesterday: Our trade deadline tiers, categorizing which teams could be — and should be — aggressive buyers and sellers.